36,540 guesses across 3,654 players, and one result sits so far out on the edge that everything else reads as background noise. The wager picture was interesting independent of the celebrity splits: 37% of guesses went 3x, and players who went bold hit 80% accuracy versus 68% on 1x. The bold-and-right rate landed at 41% — not bad, though the Hadid miss probably dragged it down.
By the Numbers
- Total guesses
- 36,540
- Average accuracy
- 72%
- Hardest celebrity
Zaha Hadid (11%)- Easiest celebrity
Leonardo DiCaprio (99%)- Biggest upset
- Zaha Hadid
- Players this week
- 3,654
- Perfect rounds
- 187
- Wager mix
- 1× 56% · 2× 7% · 3× 37%
What stood out
Liam Payne produced the closest split of the week: 51% of players called him alive, 49% deceased. Deceased is correct. On 407 guesses, that's about as close to a coin flip as the game produces. Players who wagered 3x on that one were essentially betting at elevated stakes on a genuine guess.
How 407 players guessed Liam Payne
Nora Ephron ran almost as tight — 53% alive, 47% deceased, and deceased is correct. Two near-even splits on the same board in one week is enough to keep anyone humble about their read on the field's instincts.
Roger Penrose was the quieter upset: 77% of players called the scientist deceased. He's alive. Only 23% got it right, which is bad enough to earn a mention even in a week with a 11% headliner at the top.
On the easy end, Leonardo DiCaprio posted 99% accuracy — the closest thing to a free square the game offers. The 187 perfect rounds this week likely owe him something.
Featured: Zaha Hadid
She was nicknamed the 'Queen of the Curve' for her flowing architectural designs, and she never had children because she said her buildings were her babies. She was also a mathematics student before switching to architecture.
The number is 11%. That is how many players correctly identified Zaha Hadid as deceased — worst of the week by a wide margin, and one of the sharper misses the board has produced in recent memory. 89% of the field called her alive on 407 guesses. The architect active from the 1980s through the 2010s was treated as a confident alive call by nearly everyone who saw her, and nearly everyone was wrong. The wager data compounds it: on a result this lopsided in the wrong direction, any 3x guesses on the alive side were expensive mistakes.
How 407 players guessed Zaha HadidHonorable mentions
- Roger Penrose at 23% accuracy — 77% of players called the physicist deceased. He's alive. Quietly the second-hardest miss of the week.
Charlie Munger at 36% accuracy — 64% of players called him alive. Deceased. The investor from the 1980s–2010s keeps catching people.
Gordie Howe at 38% — 62% of players left the hockey player standing. Deceased.
Rob Reiner at 60% — worth noting that the data has him deceased. Players who called him alive were wrong on more than a third of the guesses he drew.