78% Went for Toby Keith. The Other 22% Were Right.

2,469 players, wagers split almost evenly between 1x and 3x — 47% went bold — and those who did came out ahead: 3x accuracy hit 84% versus 73% on 1x. The bold-and-right rate landed at 50%. Then a country musician who had been active through the 2020s walked off with 78% of the field's confidence and left them wrong.

By the Numbers

Total guesses

24,690

Average accuracy

79%

Hardest celebrity

Toby Keith (22%)

Easiest celebrity

Ed Sheeran (100%)

Biggest upset

Toby Keith

Players this week

2,469

Perfect rounds

330

Wager mix

1× 48% · 2× 5% · 3× 47%

What stood out

Erykah Badu landed at 51% accuracy — players split 51% alive, 49% dead on 385 guesses. She's alive. The closest call of the week by a comfortable margin, and a genuine coin flip on a respectable sample. Right behind her: Alexander McQueen at 44% accuracy, with 56% of the field calling him alive. He's deceased. Two celebrities within six points of 50/50 in the same week is enough to make a mess of the scoreboard.

Michael Chabon also ran wrong-direction: 62% of players called him deceased on 333 guesses. He's alive. 38% accuracy. Johnny Marr matched that energy — 68% of players called the 1980s–2020s musician deceased. He's alive. 32% accuracy. Two living authors and musicians, both reading as past-tense to most of the field.

330 perfect rounds out of 2,469 players — a solid rate. Ed Sheeran was the clean gimme, 100% accuracy on 407 guesses. Not one guess in the other direction. Bonus exact-year hits came in at 736.

Featured: Toby Keith

78% of players called Toby Keith alive. He's deceased. That's 22% accuracy on 407 guesses — worst on the board and the week's biggest upset by a clear margin. The 1990s–2020s country musician ran on the week's fourth-largest sample and held steady across wager tiers: no bet level got you out of it. With 47% of all wagers at 3x, a miss this wide did serious damage to scores that had looked strong heading into the harder draws.

Honorable mentions

• Alexander McQueen at 44% — 56% of players called the 1990s–2000s designer alive. He's deceased. The second-closest split of the week and the hardest wrong-direction miss outside the top upset.
• Johnny Marr at 32% — 68% of players called him deceased. He's alive. A quiet, consistent miss on a name the field keeps getting wrong.
• Ed Sheeran at 100% — the only celebrity this week nobody missed. 407 guesses, zero errors. The floor and ceiling of the week, all at once.