2,236 players, 161 perfect rounds, and a wager column that leaned bold: 43% of all bets went 3x against 52% at 1x. Players who committed at that tier did well — 3x accuracy hit 82% against 72% on 1x — but the bold-and-right rate landed at 46%, just under the break-even line. 
Nora Jones is where a lot of that confidence evaporated.
By the Numbers
- Total guesses
- 22,360
- Average accuracy
- 76%
- Hardest celebrity
- Nora Jones (7%)
- Easiest celebrity
Adele (99%)- Biggest upset
- Nora Jones
- Players this week
- 2,236
- Perfect rounds
- 161
- Wager mix
- 1× 52% · 2× 5% · 3× 43%
What stood out
Mark Spitz landed at 48% accuracy — the closest split of the week, 48% alive against 52% dead on 289 guesses. He's alive, so the majority went the wrong way, barely. Right behind him, 
Vangelis drew 47% alive on 289 guesses — he's deceased, so the majority had it right, also barely. Two celebrities, opposite truths, both sitting within two points of a coin flip.
How 289 players guessed Mark Spitz
Gene Hackman and 
Richard Lewis both landed at 54% accuracy — deceased, called correctly by a thin majority. Neither was a gimme. Four celebrities in the 48–54% range made for a noisy top of the split chart.
On the other end of the confidence spectrum: Adele at 99%, 
Billie Eilish and 
Nate Bargatze at 97%, 
Salma Hayek and 
Solange Knowles at 98%. Those anchored the week's average. Without them, the 7% Norah Jones number would have dragged things considerably lower.
Bonus exact-year hits: 778. Top score: 3,500.
Featured: Norah Jones
Her debut album won eight Grammy Awards in a single night — a record for any debut album — yet she has said she finds awards shows deeply uncomfortable and anxiety-inducing.
93% of the field called Nora Jones deceased. She's alive. That's 7% accuracy on 330 guesses — worst on the board, and it wasn't particularly close. The second-hardest miss was 
Tim Curry at 17% accuracy (83% alive calls; he's deceased), which puts the gap between first and second at a full ten points. With 43% of the week's bets going 3x, a meaningful share of those wrong Norah Jones answers absorbed the maximum penalty.
How 330 players guessed Nora JonesHonorable mentions
- Tim Curry at 17% — 83% of players called the actor alive. He's deceased. Second-hardest miss by a wide margin.
Patti Smith at 37% and 
Taj Mahal at 36% — both alive, both pulled a strong majority of dead calls. Musicians from the 1970s running in the wrong direction again.
David Foster Wallace at 35% — 65% of players called the author alive. He's deceased. Make of that what you will.